Tutorial 1

Title:
Is Futures Research possible? Scenario building as research activity.

Content:
Foresight, and especially scenario building, is usually considered helpful in strategic reasoning, research processes and policy development. The status of futures literacy, however, is both undefined and under-communicated as part of a scientific research process itself. What could be a fruitful relation between foresight/scenario development and common research methodologies? Could we talk about an epistemology of futures intelligence and therefore consider systematic futures orientations as research activities? The tutorial will invite the participants to discuss these issues, after they have been presented with the core idea of foresight and scenario building approaches.

Who should attend (target group):
Researchers, practitioners, managers, strategic advisers, people with interest in the philosophy of Science.

Used material:
- Neumann, Iver B. & Øverland, E.F. (2004c): International Relations and Policy Planning: the Method of Perspectivist Scenario Building, International Studies Perspectives (2004) 5, 258-277
- Øverland, E. F. (2005): The Use of Heuristic Terms in Policy building. Dynamics and Fallacies in Policy Building Processes, Paper presented at the IPTS June 2005 (article-draft -> hand out in advance)
- Renn, Ortwin 2002:    Foresight and Multi-Level Governance, Seville 2002
For those who read Norwegian:
 -Kristian Åtland, Tor Bukkvoll, Morten Jeppesen og Iver Johansen: HVOR GÅR - RUSSLAND? Fem scenarier om Russland og norsk sikkerhet i 2030, Abstrakt forlag 2005.
- Øverland, Erik F. (red) (2000a): Norge2030. Fem scenarier om offentlig sektors framtid, Cappelen Akademiske forlag, Oslo. Book in Norwegian (English: Norway2030. Five scenarios about the Future of Public Sector)

Instructor:
Erik F. Øverland, Director SUBITO! Research&Futures. Futurist and foresight expert.

Level:
All levels: Basic -> intermediate -> advanced

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